Thursday, July 3, 2014

SPX 2-Hour Chart Upward-Sloping Channel Rising Wedges Overbot Negative Divergence

Here is an update for the previous 2-hour chart. The price move after the jobs report is up (see previous chart) so the chart continues to absorb the new news. Charts always have the up-to-the minute information built into the chart at any point in time but today's job report, or news out of left field, requires a few candlesticks to build the result into the price action. Price is at the top of the blue channel, at the apex of the red wedges and at the upper standard deviation bands (pink lines). Price may want to venture up to that top pink line at 1985 for another violation but the path is now open for a trip back to the middle band at 1967 and rising and even the lower band at 1949 and rising.

The red lines show negative divergence across the board except the MACD line so price wants another price high after a pull-back candlestick occurs. Thus, a couple more candlesticks are needed so that may take markets into Monday morning (the first day of trading next week) since today is an early close at 1 PM EST. Overall, the chart remains relatively the same as the prior chart. Price should top out into the close today or on Monday morning but will likely recover again from any drop back up to these highs (due to the weekly and daily SPX charts showing slightly more juice). That top in the days ahead should serve as a more important market peak and can be further explored next week.

Watch the RSI line since if it stays under the 70-ish level from a few days ago, the SPX will peak faster and sell off sooner but if the RSI squeezes out further upside above 71 and higher then the SPX will not top until sometime Monday. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 5:01 AM: The RSI on the 2-hour chart sneaks higher so the bulls are going to maintain the current SPX levels for a few more hours with the expectation remaining that equities will top out on Monday, perhaps Monday afternoon, or Tuesday morning. Bulls added some very short term juice with the upside thrust and momo yesterday so one to four two-hour candlesticks (2 to 8 hours trading time) may need to play out to lock in the negative divergence across all indicators and time frames and place the top. The SPX prints a new all-time high at 1985.59 and new all-time closing high at 1985.44. Keystone's 80/20 rules says 8's lead to 2's so the 1980's is a killer for bears which hints that a run to the 2020's would be on the table.

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