Thursday, November 20, 2014

SPX Daily Chart Overbot Negative Divergence

Here is an update of the daily chart with two more candlesticks (days) to see if the RSI has set up with neggie d yet. (Reference the previous daily chart.) As seen above, the RSI is now overbot and is negatively diverged. The other indicators remain negatively diverged as well with the new price high. That's it; price is at the near term top. There are two caveats, however. First, if a positive news event occurs overnight, say a central banker coughs and it sounds like they said 'stimulus' or 'quantitative easing', well, obviously stocks will rocket higher and have to reset. The central banks are the market.

Second, since tomorrow is Friday, bulls have an advantage since shorts will typically pare back positions into the weekend creating market lift. Therefore the bulls may squeeze out another happy white candlestick into the weekend, however, the expectation is that for that price high, if it occurs tomorrow, the RSI should still remain neggie d so the slap down would simply start on Monday.

The way things are set up now the expectation is for a spank down to begin tomorrow. For today (Thursday, 11/20/14), the bulls print a new all-time closing high, the 44th record high this year, at 2052.75. The all-time record intraday high remains at 2056.08 on 11/18/14The indicators are all in negative divergence. Scroll back to the prior daily chart for further study and understand how the chart progressed to today. Watch for the negative line cross for the MACD which would lock-in the bear action ahead.

Another feather in the bear's cap is that markets are typically weak moving through the new moon which is Saturday. Thus, if the bulls do sneak another high out tomorrow into the weekend, or are printing an intraday higher high, that will likely be an excellent short opportunity as the set up is now (as long as the RSI remains neggie d). The BPSPX is up to 71 now above 70 for three days; each day placing another nail in the bear's coffin. The bears must reverse the BPSPX under 70 pronto, otherwise, even any near-term sell off will only allow the dip-buyers to come back in. If BPSPX moves back under 70 that signals a more extended move lower for stocks.

The projection is that a near-term top is in and the bear's will receive a turn at bat going forward. The negative MACD line cross will create more downside fuel as well as the BPSPX dropping under 70. Negativity is on tap for markets if the VIX moves back above the 200-day MA at 13.87 and sustainable market selling is on tap above VIX 14.36 (idenitifed by the Keybot the Quant algorithm). VIX lost the 200-day today which is a feather in the bull's cap.

After an obscene central-banker induced one-month rally of well over 200 SPX handles, the bear's finally receive a chance (as long a the neggie d on the RSI holds). A VIX above 13.87 and the negative MACD cross for the chart above will guarantee bear victory into next week. If the RSI sneaks out another high compared to three days ago, then the bears will have to wait a couple more days. Key S/R is 2056, 2053, 2046, 2040, 2038, 2032, 2024 and 2018. The RUT retraced under its 20-day MA which is 2020 and rising for the SPX. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 6:34 AM on Friday, 11/21/14: The central bankers ride to the rescue as mentioned above. ECB President Draghi provides more lip service about upcoming stimulus that had already sent S&P futures up +6 then they double again after the PBOC (China) announces a surprise interest rate cut. Global indexes catapult higher. S&P +14. Dow +125. Nasdaq +32. Copper moves higher. The bulls want to keep the stock market elevated into Thanksgiving. The central bankers collude to keep the stock market elevated and it was obvious from the chart above that they would need to goose things to keep the party going. Watch the RSI today. If the RSI prints a higher high than three days ago the party continues into and through Thanksgiving. If the RSI remains neggie d at the end of today, after the pop in stocks, then the downside will kick in early next week as described above. Usually central banker pumping moves, like this morning, result in 20 to 30 SPX handles of upside.

Wednesday, November 19, 2014

SPX Daily Chart Negative Divergence Developing

The bull rally continues, fueled by the central bankers with another higher high and new all-time record intraday high at 2056.08 and new all-time closing high, the 43rd this year, at 2051.80. The indicators are all in negative divergence, however, except for the RSI. Scroll back to the prior daily chart and we were watching the RSI and MACD line waiting for them to print neggie d. The MACD line cooperates with the bears which is surprising since it is typically the last indicator to top out. But the RSI pops higher into overbot territory and the flat neggie d did not hold. Thus, RSI wants to see one more price high after a pull back. The negative divergence with the other indicators should create the initial spank down probably starting today, or tomorrow.

Since one to three candlesticks will be needed for the RSI to turn neggie d, that is one to three days. So the actual near-term top may not occur until Friday or Monday or early next week. The new moon is Saturday and stocks are typically bearish about 65% of the time through the new moon. Some pre-holiday bullishness may kick in next week, however, moving into Thanksgiving.

Marrying the above with the BPSPX and CPCE charts previously posted, the expectation would be for the BPSPX to reverse and drop back under 70 taking away the bullish joy along with the chart above topping out any day forward and rolling over. A topping out would also be consistent with the CPCE chart that says a market top is very near due to the uber complacency in the markets. There are no bears remaining; everyone is bullish cheering the upside buying calls and staying long so that is when they typically get slapped in the face.

Projection is for some weakness for a day or three but price will likely come up once more so the RSI can print negative divergence to match the red lines for the other indicators indicating the near-term top is in place and begin extended downside. Note that the bottoms only occurred with a hair of positive divergence with the stochastics that were oversold. This behavior verifies the central banker intervention that saves the markets preventing any correction from happening. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 7:58 PM: The initial spank down occurs due to the neggie d with the MACD line, histo, stochastics and money flow. The RSI drops from yesterday's peak which is expected since price moves lower. The thing to watch as mentioned above is if the RSI goes neggie d when price comes back up, or not. The best thing for bears would be for price to actually recover tomorrow and print matching or higher all-time highs. If so, and the RSI negatively diverges, and the other indicators remain neggie d, then the top will be in.

CPCE Put/Call Ratio and SPX Daily Charts Significant Market Top At Hand

The bears have been slapped around for the last month as the SPX catapults over 200 handles purely fueled by the central banker orgy. The Fed, BOJ, PBOC, BOE and ECB collude to create the never-ending upside in equities. The stock market was teetering on collapse and headed down the rabbit hole in October so the Fed had no choice but to send Bullard out to announce that quantitative easing will remain on the table as a possibility; QE 4. The announcement turned the end of QE Infinity into a farce since QE clearly remains in play.

The double red circles show the significant tops and bottoms in equities over the last few months. The low CPCE in June signaled a significant top coming but it took another month for equities to top out. Typically, the time lag is not that long. The central bank goosing, however, distorts many market technicals and fundamentals these days. The CPCE called the August bottom within one week's time. Then, again, in August, the low CPCE took one month to play out creating the September top, another surprise that it took that long. The mid-October bottom was dead-on with the spike in CPCE showing that traders had become far too negative.

A high CPCE indicates traders that are worried so they are buying more puts than calls. The low CPCE signals complacency and lack of fear that markets will sell off and traders tripping over each other buying calls with reckless abandon; like now. The CPCE is a contrarian indicator so if traders are uber pessimistic, like mid-October, markets will actually bottom and rally while if traders are uber optimistic and worry-free, like now, markets will actually top out and sell off.

The CPCE prints a low 0.50 about three weeks ago as November began so the case can be made that the current low 0.47 print should forecast a market top within the next week and the top would likely be significant like the prior two tops. The SPX lost 80 points in the Aug-Sept selloff and 200 handles in the Sept-Oct selloff.

The projection is that the stock market should top out in the days ahead. This will throw a wrench into the works for the universal consensus that expects higher markets into year end. Using the one-month right translation for the prior tops described above, the longest case would be for the top to occur by mid-December but with the early November low CPCE above we are likely closer to the top than that and the top will likely occur before November ends. Exercise caution if long. Ditching the long side and bringing on shorts is a prudent strategy going forward. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

BPSPX Bullish Percent Index Daily Chart Market Buy Signal

The bulls punch the bears in the face yesterday with the BPSPX moving above the critical 70% level. For the BPSPX, a market sell signal occurs when a six percentage-point reversal occurs to the downside and a double whammy sell signal occurs when price drops under 70. A market buy signal occurs when a six percentage-point reversal occurs to the upside and a double whammy buy signal occurs when price crosses above 70.

The bears receive the market sell signal at the end of July and the double whammy sell signal in September which accurately forecasted and confirmed the market selloff into mid-October. The bulls fight back creating a market buy signal off the bottom and markets were conflicted with a sell signal under 70 and a buy signal for the six point reversal. Yesterday, the bulls push above 70 creating the double whammy buy signal which forecasts more upside ahead and the SPX headed to 2060-2080.

Since the move occurred yesterday, the bears have a window today, perhaps tomorrow, to reverse the BPSPX and get it back under 70 to negate the double whammy buy and stop the market rally. Otherwise, above 70, the bulls will receive a joyous holiday season of upside in equities. Check the BPSPX over the next two days to see if the bulls maintain the go-signal for further upside, or not. The bears need to push the BPSPX under 64.40 (70.40-6) to return to a double whammy sell signal where markets will sell off in earnest. Markets are at a key inflection and by the weekend you will know who is the likely winner into year end. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 8:05 PM: The SPX loses a few points today, no biggie, and the BPSPX remains dead flat at 70.40. This is a blow to market bears since they need to get the BPSPX under 70 as soon as possible. The Thursday session is important. Each day the BPSPX stays above 70, the SPX 2060-2080 becomes more of a reality.

Tuesday, November 18, 2014

HD Home Depot 1-Minute Chart Flash Crash

At 3:55 PM EST, HD flash crashes on the NYSE from 96.30 to 86.52, -10.2%, in only a few seconds time. Home Depot recovers quickly back to 96.00 at 3:56 PM and finishes the day down -2.1% at 95.98. HD is a component in the Dow Jones Industrials; a Dirty 30 stock. The NYSE sweeps the incident under the rug and does not provide a reason for the mini flash crash. The NYSE cancels all HD trades under 93.33 during the last five minutes. The software glitches, fat finger trades, HFT shenanigans and technical malfunctions continue with frequency at the exchanges but no one cares since the focus is on a stock market that runs euphorically higher on central banker easy money. Watch your wallet. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Monday, November 17, 2014

SPX 2-Hour Chart Tight Standard Deviation Bands to Squeeze Out Big Move

The drama with the tight standard deviation band squeeze on the 2-hour chart continues. This is epic the way the bands are squeezed in due to the flat price action over the last week. The red rising wedge and negative divergence created a couple spank downs (red arrows) as they were described just before they occurred a few days ago but surprisingly the bears could not develop any downside juice. The central bankers always show up to save day promising more QE so stocks remain elevated.

The negative cross remains for the MACD lines favoring bears. The indicators are staggering sideways and do not shed light on the direction that price is going to break. Starting tomorrow, the SPX is going to move very sharply either 20 or 30 handles up, or the same amount down. The VIX is at 13.99. If the VIX drops below the 200-day MA at 13.95 the bulls win. If the VIX stays above the 200-day MA at 13.95 the bears win. The limits on the bands above are 2034 and 2043, thus, bulls win big above 2043 and bears win big under 2034.

The SPX key resistance is 2046; the all-time intraday high is 2046.18. Support below is the all-time closing high at 2041.32 (where price begins on Tuesday), 2038-2040, 2035, 2032, 2030, 2024, 2016-2019 (November began at 2018) and 2011. During OpEx week, a Tuesday low typically leads to a Wednesday high. Markets are in a Bradley turn window where a market inflection point is at hand to occur any day now into next week and equities will commit to a direction. The new moon is Saturday and markets are typically weak moving through the new moon which would be Friday to Monday.

The 8 MA is above the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute charts signaling bullish markets ahead so watch this signal. Bears got nothing unless they create a negative 8/34 cross on the SPX 30-minute chart. Keybot the Quant remains long but if the VIX moves above 14.37 and the SPX drops under 2035, Keybot will likely flip to the short side. So there is lots of drama on tap for Tuesday and a lot on the line. The algorithm is also tracking JJC 36.97 which would give the bulls upside juice and confirm a strong move higher (so watch copper trading overnight) for stocks.

Listen for any geopolitical events overnight. With the bands so tight, something wild may occur over the coming hours into and through Tuesday morning. A huge move is about to occur tomorrow. Fasten your seat belts. Use the above tools to see who wins. One side is going to be very happy this time tomorrow night and the other side very sad. The tube of toothpaste is squeezed tight and is about to explode in one direction or the other. US futures are dead flat on Monday evening. An eerie calm is in place as both sides realize the stakes are high when the sun rises tomorrow. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 8:00 PM on Tuesday evening, 11/18/14: The VIX lost the 200-day MA at 13.94 at the opening bell this morning so the fix was in for the bulls that rode to victory catapulting up and out of the tight bands gaining over 15 points to a new all-time intraday high at 2056.08 and new all-time closing high at 2051.80. Note how the VIX came back up in the afternoon to close at 13.86 only six pennies under the 200-day MA at 13.92 that will again signal market trouble (above VIX 13.92). Note also how copper was very weak today. If the global economy was strong, copper should be running strongly higher. The 8 MA is well above the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute chart forecasting the bullish joy and bullish action for the hours ahead. For the 30-minute chart, the indicators are negatively diverged except for the RSI and MACD line that want to see another high. Interestingly, on the 1-hour chart, the indicators are all in negative divergence, albeit by a hair, and the last two candlesticks are creating a Tweezer Top. On the SPX 2-hour chart, the indicators are negatively diverged over the three-week period but closer-in over the last few hours, for today's upside rally, there is near-term long and strong momo with the MACD and money flow that will want another high in price. In addition, the MACD cross is now positive with the black line above the red line (bullish). What does all this mumbo-jumbo mean? The SPX is resetting with negative divergence again to create another move lower. One to three 2-hour candlesticks may be needed so the top should occur tomorrow (2 to 6 hours of trading time). During OpEx week, a Tuesday low typically leads to a Wednesday high. Today stocks simply ran higher from the get-go so the opening bell was the low. This jives with a top occurring tomorrow. In the last several days, the markets are pumped by the potential delay of the Japan sales tax hike, then by ECB's Draghi promising to buy government bonds in the weeks and months ahead, then Japan's Abe confirming the sales tax delay this morning creating today's boost, then Fed's Kocherlakota pumping stocks this afternoon as well as European officials further pumping the buying of sovereign bond idea. Look at how the European markets were a complete sea of green today running higher on easy money promises. The markets are purely central banker driven. The BOJ continues to bludgeon the yen with the dollar/yen pair now above 117 sending the Nikkei higher and will create further US stock buoyancy tomorrow if the dollar/yen stays above 117. The expectation is for stocks to top out tomorrow; it will depend if the 2-hour chart can completely negatively diverge across all indicators and if the MACD line cross above needs to turn negative again. Pay attention to the VIX 200-day MA at 13.92 again tomorrow. Bears need the VIX above 13.92 to stop the market rally, otherwise, they got nothing.

SPX 30-Minute Chart 8/34 MA Cross Diamond Pattern H&S Pattern Gap

The 8 MA is below the 34 MA, barely, signaling bearish markets for the hours ahead. Obviously, however, the moving averages remain in a sideways fight and have flip-flopped three times since Friday. The 8/34 cross is key since it tells you who wins going forward. Will the market bears hang on?

The blue diamond pattern is in play and price and the moving averages are all going sideways into the apex so a decision must be made; up or down. Diamonds can resolve as diamond continuation patterns where price consolidates and then moves higher, or, diamond reversal patterns where price collapses. More of the diamond reversal patterns typically occur but it is never a done deal out of the diamond pattern until you see price commit. The vertical center of the diamond is 14 handles from 2032 to 2046, thus the breakout to the upside, or break down, should run that distance. If price breaks out from here at 2040, the 2054 is the upside target. If price breaks down from the lower trend line of the diamond pattern, say 2038, the downside target is 2024 which is very strong support.

The purple support lines show where price gapped up creating an island that price remains on. On the way back down an island reversal may occur if price drops to 2015-2016, then immediately collapses back down through the gap to 2011 and lower in a heartbeat. There is also an H&S in play (pink lines) with head at 2046 and neck line at 2032, the same limits as the diamond pattern, however, the head and shoulders targets 2018 if the 2032 level fails. November began at 2018 and there are only 8 trading days remaining in the month.

The SPX S/R is previously posted with key resistance at 2046, the all-time intraday high at 2046.18. Support below is the all-time closing high at 2039.822038, 2035, 2032, 2030, 2024, 2016-2019 (November began at 2018) and 2011. So watch the 8/34 cross to see if the bears remain in control for the hours ahead, or not. Watch to see which side of the diamond that price breaks out; either above 2040, or below 2038This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 10:25 AM: The drama continues with price bouncing back and forth between 2038 and 2040 now threatening to break out to the upside from 2040. Whoa. The European central bank rides to the rescue today. ECB President Draghi says that buying government bonds (sovereign debt) is an option going forward. The promise of more QE shenanigans pumps stocks higher. European indexes launch higher well in positive territory. The SPX pops up through 2040, 2041, and prints a HOD above 2042. The central bankers are the market. The dollar/yen is 116.48 so this currency pair ran higher from under 116 this morning reflecting a weaker yen which is used to buy stocks and send prices higher. This is why the US futures recovered into the opening bell and now the ECB does some more pumping. Keybot the Quant algorithm remains long and is tracking VIX 14.37 (use this number instead of VIX 14.21) and JJC 37.01 as lines in the sand. Bears win if VIX moves above 14.37 and volatility was above after the opening bell now falling back below to VIX 14.11Bulls win if JJC moves above 37.01. If the status quo remains, stocks should stagger sideways. Volatility is up and the SPX is up so one of them is wrong. Bears only need 25 cents higher for VIX and they will create a downside move for stocks. JJC is 36.73 moving lower today remaining in the bear camp hurting the bull case.

Note Added 10:44 AM: SPX 2038.94 back inside the diamond pattern. Surprisingly, the SPX is stalled despite the BOJ and ECB central banks colluding to pump the indexes higher. VIX 14.23 the bears only 14 pennies from victory at 14.37.

Note Added 10:46 AM: Whoa. Ho, ho, ho. Major decision is at the doorstep. Price is 2038.55. The 8 MA for the chart above is 2038.35. The 34 MA 2038.43. All three are within pennies of each other. The 8 is under the 34 so the bears are in charge for the hours ahead but this may change in the coming minutes. The SPX is likely going to commit to a direction right now. Watch the VIX since if VIX 14.37 and higher occurs, the down direction for stocks is guaranteed. If the VIX drops under 14 and moves lower, the bulls win. VIX 14.27.

Note Added 10:57 AM: 8 MA=2038.44. 34 MA=2038.45. Bears have the edge by only one single penny. SPX 2039.30 so that will help create a positive 8/34 cross. VIX is 14.26 so the bears still need one more dime before they can create strong selling pressure. The VIX has moved above the 200-day MA at 13.95 described on the weekend (scroll back to view that VIX chart or type 'VIX' in the search box at the right to bring the chart up) which is a feather in the market bear's cap.

Note Added 11:01 AM: The 8 MA moves above the 34 MA signaling bullish markets for the hours ahead (fourth flip-flop in two days for the 8/34 cross). SPX is 2039.80 still deciding whether to break out above from 2040 or to fail from 2038. VIX 14.21. The beat goes on.

Note Added 12:14 PM: The VIX moved above 14.37 creating market weakness but drops back under now at 14.28 allowing the bulls to recover. The 2035 support holds. For the 8/34 cross drama, the 8 MA is 2038.46 and 34 MA is 2038.39, so the bulls are in favor but only by 7 pennies. The stock market is exhibiting more theatrics than a Shakespearean play. Bears must move VIX above 14.37 if they want to stop the market upside. JJC 36.66.

Note Added 6:57 PM: The bulls punch the bears in the face winning the fight over the 8/34 MA cross on the 30-minute so bullish markets are forecasted for the hours ahead, however, the 8 MA is 2041 and so is the SPX price. So bears have one chance, after the opening bell on Tuesday, to push equities lower and push the 8 MA downward to create a negative 8/34 cross. If the bears do not succeed in the opening couple hours on Tuesday, they will fold like a cheap suit. As long as bears keep the SPX under 2041 they can curl the 8 MA lower. If price moves above 2041 the bears are in trouble. VIX is 13.99 so the bears could not hold the 14.37 level so equities recovered in the afternoon. A feather in the bear's cap is the VIX above the critical 200-day MA at 13.94 a signal for bearish markets ahead. If the VIX drops under the 200-day MA at 13.94 tomorrow the bears are toast. Price is trying to break out above the diamond pattern but the first couple hours need to play out on Tuesday to identify the firm winner. Something big is going to go down either through the night tonight or before the opening bell in the morning because the standard deviation bands are super tight on the SPX 2-hour chart. A squeeze move is likely going to send the SPX 20 to 30 handles in one direction or the other starting tomorrow. The central bankers are the market so if the ECB promises more QE overnight or if the BOJ destroys the yen and sends the dollar/yen above 117 the fix will be in and stocks will take off like a rocket tomorrow. If trouble flares up with Ukraine-Russia, Brazil or Japan, or ISIS, or other event such as Ebola, then the bears will receive the nod. If the geopolitics are quiet, you can use the VIX 200-day MA as your guide to tell you who the winner is when the opening bell rings.

SPX Daily Chart Overbot Negative Divergence Developing Expansion Pattern

The expansion pattern, or megaphone pattern, highlighted a few days ago continues playing out (thin blue lines) with price at the top trend line. The indicators are negatively diverged except the MACD which peaked with the peak in price (still a hair long and strong). For negative divergence the MACD would need to be lower as price made the new high. The RSI is sketchy as well moving sideways but this is negative divergence since the RSI is out of gas as price prints higher. Thus, price should come back up for one more look after a pull back due to the MACD line and potentially the RSI moving into overbot territory.

The SPX S/R is previously posted with key resistance at 2046, the all-time intraday high at 2046.18. Support below is the all-time closing high at 2039.82, 2038, 2035, 2032, 2030, 2024, 2016-2019 (November began at 2018) and 2011. Price may pull back to one of these support levels and then push higher one more time, perhaps in concert with the typical OpEx week seasonality that occurs where stocks move higher from a Tuesday low into a Wednesday high. There are four consecutive doji candlesticks ofr the lasts four days verifying the bull-bear fight last week and that a trend change may be on the table.

The projection is for perhaps a move lower to 2024-2035 support and then recovery to 2042-2046 (so the MACD line can firmly show neggie d), then roll over for more extended downside ahead perhaps honoring the expansion pattern that would target 1800-1860 in the new year. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX Support, Resistance (S/R), Moving Averages and Other Important Levels for Trading the Week of 11/17/14

SPX (S&P 500) support, resistance (S/R), moving averages and other important levels are provided for trading the week of 11/17/14. Levels shown in bold are strong resistance and support. Bold and underlined levels are very strong and important S/R. The SPX all-time intraday high is 2046.18 on 11/13/14 and the SPX all-time closing high is 2039.82 on 11/14/14.

For Monday with the SPX starting at the all-time closing high at 2040, the bulls only need two points of upside to print above 2042 and an upside acceleration will occur to 2046. The market bears need to push under 2035 to accelerate the downside. A move through 2036-2041 is sideways action to begin the week. S&P futures are -5 about one hour before the opening bell.

The parabolic move higher in stocks continues fueled by the global central banker collusion. The bullish seasonality factors such as the third year of the presidential cycle and years ending in ‘5’ are encouraging the bulls to chase prices higher. In addition, a major percentage of the stock buybacks occur in the last two months of the year, November and December, so this further boosts stocks. Over the last two weeks, the markets were hit with the BOJ QE shock and awe, mid-term elections, ECB rate decision, Monthly Jobs Report and Japan potentially delaying its sales tax hike all resulting in an ever-increasing stock market.

The 2046 resistance is the gateway to 2050+ if it gives way. The bears need to push under 2035 to get their mojo back and under 2030 to really get their mojo back. The 2038-2042 area is a strong gauntlet of S/R. So bulls win above 2042. Bears win under 2038. Price will need to back kiss the 20 and 50-day MA’s moving forward. November begins at 2018 so this important level will become more important with only 8-1/2 trading days remaining in the month. Retail stocks carried markets higher last week along with the potential delay of the Japan sales tax that has caused the dollar/yen to tag 117.

Friday is OpEx so for OpEx week, Monday (today) is typically bullish, then a market low usually occurs on Tuesday leading into a high on Wednesday. A Bradley turn window is open now through 11/28/14 (turn date is 11/22/14) so markets may be at an important inflection point with a sharp move up or down at the doorstep any day forward. Saturday, 11/22/14, is a new moon and markets are typically weak moving through the new moon so perhaps from 11/21 through 11/24, through next weekend, will be a weak period for equities.

2046.18 Previous Week’s High
2046 (11/13/14 All-Time Intraday High: 2046.18) (11/13/14 Intraday High for 2014: 2046.18)
2042.22 Friday HOD
2040 (11/14/14 All-Time Closing High: 2039.82) (11/14/14 Closing High for 2014: 2039.82)
2039.82 Friday Close – Monday Starts Here
2035.20 Friday LOD
2030.17 Previous Week’s Low
2019 (9/19/14 Intraday High: 2019.26)
2018.05 November Begins Here
2011 (9/18/14 Closing High: 2011.36) (9/4/14 Intraday High: 2011.17)
2007 (9/5/14 Closing High: 2007.71)
2005 (8/26/14 Intraday High: 2005.04)
2003 (8/29/14 Closing High: 2003.37)
1997.07 (20-day MA)
1992.66 (200 EMA on 60-Minute Chart a Keystone Market Turn Signal)
1991 (7/24/14 Intraday Top: 1991.39)
1988 (7/24/14 Closing High: 1987.98)
1986 (7/3/14 Intraday Top: 1985.59)
1985 (7/3/14 Closing High: 1985.44)
1975.74 (20-week MA)
1974.37 (50-day MA)
1972.06 (100-day MA)
1968 (6/24/14 Intraday Top: 1968.17)
1963 (6/20/14 Closing High: 1962.87)
1956 (6/9/14 Intraday Top: 1955.55)
1951 (6/9/14 Closing High: 1951.27)
1949.81(150-day MA; the Slope is a Keystone Cyclical Signal)
1946.37 (10-month MA; a major market warning signal)
1924.56 (12-month MA; a Keystone Cyclical Signal) (the cliff)
1924 (5/30/14 Intraday Top: 1924.03) (5/13/14 Closing High: 1923.57)
1923.54 (200-day MA)
1905.90 (50-week MA)
1902 (5/13/14 Intraday Top: 1902.17)
1897 (5/13/14 Closing High: 1897.45) (4/4/14 Intraday Top: 1897.28)
1891 (4/2/14 Closing High: 1890.90)
1884 (3/21/14 Intraday Top: 1883.97) (3/7/14 Intraday Top: 1883.57)
1878 (3/7/14 Closing High: 1878.04)
1851 (1/15/14 Intraday Top: 1850.84)
1849 (12/31/13 Intraday High Top for 2013: 1849.44)
1848.36 Trading for 2014 Begins Here
1848 (1/15/14 Closing High: 1848.38) (12/31/13 Closing High for 2013: 1848.36)

Bradley Turns for 2014

The Bradley turns do not predict direction and instead indicate market inflection points where a trend change can occur or a melt-up or melt-down. Google Donald Bradley for more information and reference his site at The Bradley turns for 2014 are; 2/5, 4/1, 7/17, 10/7, 10/16, 11/22, 12/7 and 12/26. The turns are on the money this year with February's creating a bottom, a top on April Fool's Day, another top in mid-July, an acceleration downward for the early October turn and a bottom in mid-October that sends stocks to new all-time highs. The 11/22/14 turn date is next.

The Bradley date creates a window of +/- 7 days before or after the turn date for the market inflection point to occur. Past data indicates the turns typically occurring closer-in to the date at +/- 3 days. Thus, markets are in the Bradley window now through 11/28/14 and more specifically 11/19/14 through 11/26/14. Markets are closed 11/27/14 for Thanksgiving and Friday, 11/28/14 is a shortened session to end the month. Which way will this turn send the markets? This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.