Friday, December 19, 2014

NYA NYSE Composite Weekly Chart 40-Week MA Cross Cyclical Bull Market Fights for Control

The bears are punched in the face over the last couple days like many times before over the last couple years. Yesterday, however, is a serious critical blow to the bearish case since the bulls push NYA back above the key 40-week MA. This is one of Keystone's important cyclical market indicators and determines whether the stock market is in a cyclical bull pattern or cyclical bear.

Note the collapse in the September-October time frame projecting dire trouble ahead. That is why the global central bankers; Fed, BOE, PBOC, BOJ and ECB colluded to save the day and create the late October to early December upside orgy. Markets rolled back over but again are saved over the last two days by the Yellen Rally and the ECB saying the consensus of members is to provide more stimulus; another tag-team approach to pump stock markets.

The batttle continues. Watch this indicator into early 2015 where the winner will emerge and the path for the new year will begin. Use the NYA 10755 level as the key bull-bear level. The NYA may venture through the sideways symmetrical triangle going forward. The slope of the 40-week MA is upward a bullish indication so watch to see if it flattens and rolls over, or not. If you are bullish the market you will have a happy holiday into the New Year and enjoy higher markets if the NYA stays above 10755. If the NYA drops under 10755, the bears will begin growling again and the broad market mood will quickly turn negative. The NYA begins today at 10832 about 75 points above the cliff edge signalling a cyclical bull market for the months ahead. Will it hold? This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Thursday, December 18, 2014

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish

Keystone's proprietary algo, Keybot the Quant, flips to the bull side today at SPX 2047. The NYA Index moves above its 40-week MA at 10755 creating the strength after lunch time. This is a critical blow to market bears since the NYA 40-week MA cross is an important cyclical market signal. In other words, the bulls have regained control of the markets on the intermediate and longer term basis. Continue watching NYA 10755 it will remain important through the end of the year. The NYA is currently printing 10771. As always, stay alert for a whipsaw move for Keybot but the bulls appear to be in strong control. More information is found at Keybot's site;

Keybot the Quant

SPX 30-Minute Chart 8/34 MA Cross Inverted H&S

The 8 MA pokes above the 34 MA signaling bullish markets for the hours ahead. This is in disagreement with the 200 EMA cross on the 60-minute chart so one of them will flinch and join the other to firmly identify the path ahead. The green lines show long and strong indicators that want higher highs for price for several candlesticks ahead. The blue lines show an inverted H&S with the neckline at 2013 and head at 1973 so a target of 2053 is projected at the strong 2054 and 2057 resistance levels. The gap fill is at 2032-2035.

Bears need to create a negative 8/34 MA cross or they got nothing and cannot begin to do this until the SPX prints below the 8 MA to curl it downwards. Follow the resistance levels below to see how many levels the bulls can attain and see where price may stall.

Key support/resistance is 2067, 2065, 2057, 2054, 2047 (20-day MA), 2046, 2040 (very strong overhead resistance), 2032, 2030 (200 EMA on the 60-minute), 2024, 2018, 2011, 2002-2003, 2003 (50-day MA), 1998, 1995 (20-week MA)1988 (100-day MA), 1985-1986, 1978, 1975 (150-day MA), 1973, 1968, 1964, 1964 (10-month MA) and then an air pocket to 1951. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX 1-Hour Chart 200 EMA Cross

The SPX is under the 200 EMA on the 60-minute at 2030 signaling bearish markets for the hours and days ahead, however, the S&P futures are up +20 pointing to a gap-up opening. Price wants to test this critical 200 EMA level. The SPX has violated the upper standard deviation band so a move back to the middle band at 1994 is in play but the indicators are all long and strong (green lines) wanting to see higher highs for price for a few candlesticks ahead (hours ahead). There is a gap at 2032-2035 that needs filled at some point forward.

The most important take-away on this chart is the 200 EMA at 2030 since it will tell you if stocks finish strong to end the year, or, if they fall on their face and begin selling off again. Very simply, if the SPX moves above 2030, the bulls win and markets will rally into year end. If the bears can hold the line at 2030 preventing the bulls from capturing the 200 EMA, markets will trail lower and sell off into the end of the year.

At the closing bell today, both bulls and bears will be popping the wine bottle corks but only one side will drink to celebrate while the other drinks to drown their sorrows. It all depends if price closes above or below the 200 EMA. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX 2-Hour Chart

The positive divergence (green lines) bounces price off the bottom but interestingly, the case can be made for the MACD line and money flow actually leaking a touch lower as price printed its low. For positive divergence, price needs to print the low as the indicators slope higher. That weakness leaves the door open to lower prices. However, the Fed-induced rally is spectacular. The central bankers are the market. Stocks catapult higher and the indicators are long and strong wanting to see higher highs in this 2-hour time frame. The MACD lines create a positive cross and the stochastics are above 50% in bull territory with the RSI about to move above 50%. All are bullish indications. S&P futures are up strongly pointing to another 20 to 25 SPX handles after the opening bell.

There is a juicy gap at 2032-2035 that price may target for filling. The bottom standard deviation band was violated so a move back to the middle band occurs and the upper band remains in play at 2056 and falling. Thus, at least two to four candlesticks are needed to create neggie d so that is 4 to 8 hours of trading time that will take markets into this afternoon and tomorrow before a near-term top potentially forms; the 2032, 2040, 2046 and 2054 resistance levels may see action. The futures point to a strong open with price running to the 2032-2040 S/R zone filling the gap. The 200 EMA on the 60-minute chart is 2030 a critical bull-bear signal for the hours and days ahead so bears must hold 2030-ish or they will be dead in the water. Bulls win big above 2030. The 2040 level is the strongest of all S/R levels in the current price range environment. Above 2040 and the bulls will pop champagne corks enjoying a strong finish for the end of the year. If the bears hold the 2030-2040 zone this week into early next week, the market selling and downside will resume and the year will finish weak.

Key support/resistance is 2067, 2065, 2057, 2054, 2047 (20-day MA), 2046, 2040 (very strong overhead resistance), 2032, 2030 (200 EMA on the 60-minute), 2024, 2018, 2011, 2002-2003, 2003 (50-day MA), 1998, 1995 (20-week MA)1988 (100-day MA), 1985-1986, 1978, 1975 (150-day MA), 1973, 1968, 1964, 1964 (10-month MA) and then an air pocket to 1951. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Wednesday, December 17, 2014

SPX 2-Minute Chart Fed Creates Strong Stock Market Rally

Fed Chair Yellen creates a bullish orgy this afternoon in the stock market with her dovish words. The 'considerable time' statement remains in the Fed text so that provides the green light to a continuing accomodative Fed and easy money (low rates) as far as the eye can see. The central bankers are the market. The following text describes the action in real-time including the rigged markets that moved five minutes ahead of time once the insider traders were provided the Fed information before everyone else. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Fed Rally 12/17/14
The Fed decision is imminent at 2 PM EST. The SPX is up 21 points, +1.1%, to 1994. The Dow is up 150 points, +0.9%, to 17220. The Nadsaq is up 42 points, +0.9%, to 4590. The RUT gains 16 points, up +1.4%, to 1156, but is starting to leak quickly lower. Dollar/yen 117.56. Euro 1.2407. Pound 1.5633. VIX 21.48. Gold 1196. Silver 15.98. Copper recovers to 2.87. Oil is off the intraday highs. WTIC oil 57.60. Brent oil 62.19. 10-year yield 2.11%.

The FOMC meeting is the last of the year. Traders are focused on whether or not the “considerable time period (for accommodative rates)” statement is changed. If Fed Chair Yellen flaps her dovish wings, the statement will be left as is and stocks will rally. If the “considerable time” statement changes to a date certain in Q1 or Q2 for the first rate hike, then stocks will sell off. Even if the statement remains as is, traders may lose confidence in the Fed since a June-July 2015 target is expected for the first rate hike and if it is now delayed until late 2015 or 2016, the Fed’s grand six-year Keynesian experiment may be exposed as a failure.

The Fed probably does not want to rock the boat and delay the first rate hike but instead will hike rates far more slowly in smaller increments. The Fed is rightfully concerned over a credibility problem if they reverse course and delay the expected start of rate hikes in June-July 2015. Interestingly, if the global and European deflation comes to roost in the US in 2015, the Fed may be forced to delay the first rate hike thereby creating the credibility problem. Fed Chair Yellen realizes that the greatest threats to the US economy are European economic weakness, global deflation (lower commodity and oil prices) and geopolitics (Russia, Ukraine and Middle East).

One minute and seconds before the announcement, the Dow launches higher up 170 points, 180 points and accelerates up 200 points. The SPX rockets higher up 26 points then quickly up 30 points. Obviously, the insider traders and HFT robots see the information before everyone else. It’s another crooked day on Wall Street the evidence is plain as the nose on your face.

At 2 PM EST, the Fed punts. The FOMC leaves the “considerable time” statement in as a footnote and in the main text says “the committee can be patient” and adds that this new ‘patient statement’ is consistent with the old phrase of “considerable time”. The bottom line is the Fed leaves the considerable time statement in and stocks explode higher. The Dow is up nearly +300 points on the knee jerk reaction so the insider traders and HFT traders are immediately profitable. The VIX drops under 20.

The Fed expects inflation to move back up to +2% as labor conditions improve. The Fed does not mention the overseas geopolitical problems. Oddly, the words ‘Russia’, ‘Europe’ and ‘oil’ are not mentioned in the Fed statement. The committee says they will “monitor inflation developments closely.” The change to “patient” downplays the Fed’s commitment to the timing of the first rate hike. There must be dissention among the members since the considerable time statement was not removed. Three members dissented on the statement.

The decision is extremely dovish since if June-July was slated for the first rate hike, this target now moves the hike to late summer or Fall 2015. If considerable time was removed that would have projected about a six-month period until the first rate hike verifying the June-July timeframe but instead the Fed balked. Low interest rates means the easy money ride continues and stocks rally large. Fed Chair Yellen flaps her dovish wings flying above the journalists that are ready to provide softball questions at the press conference.

The SPX catapults higher up 36 points, +1.8%, to 2009 above the 50-day MA at 2003. The Dow is up 261 points, +1.5%, to 17330 above the 50-day MA at 17285. The Nadsaq is up a big 73 points, +1.6%, to 4621 above the 50-day MA at 4586. The RUT gains an enormous 23 points, up +2.1%, to 1164 above the 50 and 200-day MA’s targeting the 20-day MA at 1169. US dollar index 88.28. Dollar/yen 117.49. Euro 1.245. Pound 1.568. The VIX is 20.61. Gold 1196. Silver 15.91. Copper 2.88. WTIC oil 57.22. Brent oil 61.80. 10-year yield 2.11%. Financials explode higher. XLF is up +1.7% to 24.10. Energy continues to rally with the top seven stocks in the S&P 500 all oil-related. XLE +4.4%. Investor Bob Doll suggests buying risk assets due to the dovish Fed.

At 2:30 PM, Fed Chair Yellen walks across the stage, sits behind a mahogany desk and begins the press conference by reading prepared remarks. Yellen waxes concern over folks that are unemployed and underemployed but the same rhetoric is spoken month after month year after year without any change. Yellen says the new language in the statement “is not a change to policy” which will maintain buoyancy in the stock rally (the Fed does not plan to raise rates for a long time). The Fed says the words were changed to reflect a better economy wanting to have it both ways.

Fed members project the unemployment rate to drop to 5.2%-5.3% at the end of next year. Yellen says the “lower oil prices will hold down inflation.” She says “a rate hike is unlikely for the next couple meetings” which places the possibility for the first hike firmly into Q2 or later. Yellen says the “patient” wording should be interpreted that it is not likely that a rate hike will occur for at least a couple of meetings. The wind comes out of the stock market sails since the rate hike now appears back on the table for the April-July 2015 period dampening the exuberant dovish mood after the statement was released about 45 minutes ago. The SPX drops under 2K to 1998. The Dow is at 17281. Stocks remain strongly higher but off the highs.

Yellen takes Q&A and discourages talk of having a press conference at every Fed meeting saying the current schedule will remain in place with quarterly news conferences. The dollar/yen is higher to 118.32 as the US dollar index moves higher above 88.8. The tape remains jumpy. Stocks lose the gains and are down where they were minutes before the announcement losing all the dovish energy. SPX 1997. VIX is marching higher again to 21.26. Yellen says the deflationary effects with lower oil are transitory and inflation will move higher in the months ahead. The Fed is out of touch considering that oil is down -50%, cut in half, since summer time; that is quite a ‘transitory’ move. What would a strong trend move look like? Yellen ignores any negative effects in high-yield bonds due to the tumbling oil prices.

Yellen delivers the dovish goods planning to remain accommodative with low rates. Stocks begin moving higher as the Q & A session continues. The SPX is sticky at the 50-day MA at 2002-2003. Yellen says the members are attentive to global developments. Oil reverses the intraday rally with WTIC down to 55.89 and Brent at 60.44. The video feed from Fed Chair Yellen’s press conference goes dead for a couple minutes at 3 PM EST. Stocks leak lower.

At 3:01 PM, SPX 1993. INDU 17213. Nasdaq sits directly on the psychological 4600. RUT 1163. VIX 21.45. The US dollar index moves above 89.

At 3:07 PM, the SPX is up 23 points. The Dow is up 172 points. The Nasdaq is up 59 points. WTIC oil 56.12. Brent oil 60.76. Financials remain buoyant with XLF up +1.4% which will keep stocks elevated into the closing bell.

Yellen says the Russian problems will not impact the US economy or markets which creates a thrust higher in stocks. She is encouraged by the housing market so her dovish and optimistic talk sends stocks higher as the press conference ends at 3:30 PM.

The SPX is up 39 points to the highs, +2%, to 2011. The Dow is up 286 points, +1.7%, to 17355. The Nasdaq is up 90 points, +2%, to 4638. The RUT gains 32 points, +2.8%, to 1171. The VIX is 20.08. The tape remains jumpy. Stocks catapulted higher on the 2 PM statement then completely gave up all gains at 3 PM then in the final one-half hour of the news conference; especially after saying Russia is not a worry, stocks leap back to the highs.

Stocks float higher into the closing bell. Yellen appears unconcerned about geopolitics and at the same time willing to keep rates low indefinitely since the considerable time statement remains in the Fed text. The “patient” phrase is dovish. Low rates means plenty of liquidity and stocks rocket higher. The Dow is up over 300 points. The SPX is up over 40 points. The Nasdaq is up over 100 points. All Hail the Fed! Rates will stay low for a “considerable time.” Nothing has changed.

Stocks double their gains after the Fed meeting. Yellen, Queen of the Doves, creates a robust stock market rally. The central bankers are the market. The day ends with the SPX up 40 points, the best point gain in three years, +2%, to 2013. The Dow is up 288 points, +1.7%, to 17357. The Nadsaq is up 96 points, +2.1%, to 4644. The RUT gains a huge 35 points, +3.1%, to 1175.

For the complete chronology of today's global market action as always reference Keystone the Scribe website.

Note Added 7:09 AM EST on Thursday morning, 12/18/14: The Fed Aftermath continues with a cascading global rally to Asia and to Europe and US futures are strongly higher. S&P +22. Dow +190.

Further clarification and commentary on the Fed's theatrics;

The Fed keeps the “considerable time” phrase in the FOMC statement that references when the first rate hike will occur. This creates a huge stock market rally in the US since the Fed is in no hurry to raise rates. At the same time, the Fed adds a “patience” statement that originates from Fed Greenspan’s days which typically means the first rate hike will occur in six months which is June-July 2015. Further, in the Q&A session, Fed Chair Yellen says the FOMC will not raise rates for the next couple meetings and clarifies to say ‘couple’ means ‘two’. This opens the door for an April 2015 rate hike earlier than the consensus expects.

The Fed wants it both ways. The bottom line is that the Fed left the considerable time phrase in the statement so that negates the April to June target for the rate hike and maintains the ongoing projection that the rate hike will occur from June-July 2015 or later and creates the stock market rally. The Fed tried to use worlds to create a hawkish tone but by balking at removing the considerable time statement is instead professing ongoing dovishness. The confusion will continue into the next meeting on 1/27/15 and 1/28/15 where traders will be watching to see if the considerable time phrase is completely removed or not. When considerable time is removed the first rate hike is definitely on tap in six months or sooner.

The central bankers control the markets. This is what modern day capitalism has descended into; a group of Fed members dictating the ongoing directional moves in markets. It is absolutely shameful. The free market principal has become a joke. The Fed has nine meetings scheduled for 2015 the first in January, then 3/17-18/15, then 4/28-29/15, then 6/23-24/15. Yellen says the first rate hike would not occur for two meetings which targets 4/29/15 as the first potential date for a rate hike but as explained above, the market expects summer 2015 or later which creates an ongoing bid in the stock market.

Tuesday, December 16, 2014

SPX 2-Hour Chart H&S Lower Band Violation

The SPX may create a sideways vibe into the FOMC meeting tomorrow afternoon. The VIX is at 21 and higher so this creates wilder and wilder intraday and day to day points swings in the indexes. The SPX has a LOD at 1976 and high at 2017 a 41-handle intraday turnaround. Price keeps playing around in this key S/R zone now at 2000 under the critical 50-day MA.

Key support/resistance is 2046, 2040 (very strong overhead resistance), 2033 (a strong S/R level and the 200 EMA on the 60-minute), 2032, 2024, 2018, 2011, 2002-2003, 2002 (50-day MA), 1998, 1994 (20-week MA)
1992 (38% Fib retracement)1988 (100-day MA), 1985-1986, 1978, 1974 (150-day MA), 1973, 1968, 1965 (50% Fib retracement), 1964, 1962 (10-month MA) and then an air pocket to 1951.

Today the low in price clearly popped off the 150-day MA so that moving average now has street cred; watch it closely going forward a key bounce or die market failure level. For now, the bulls run higher through the other moving averages and price bumps its head on the strong 2018 resistance just like yesterday and drops lower again. The red lines show the neggie d spankdown and the green lines show the possie d launch. Price will likely want to print a few candles before negative divergence will appear again which can easily take markets into the Fed drama tomorrow. The RSI did not reach oversold territory so that is a sneaky little 'hanging chad' so-to-speak going forward. Technically, the low price print occurred with all indicators positively diverged hinting that the 1980-ish low should hold.

The brown lines show an H&S pattern with two Quasimodo-style right shoulders. Using a support neck line at 2030-2035 and head at 2080-ish provides easy math to target 1980-1990 which occurred and price bounced satisfying the H&S. The lower standard deviation band is violated so a move back to the middle band at 2022 and falling is needed. The middle band may descend on the strong 2018 resistance and price may head higher to meet at this confluence as well. The days before a Fed meeting tend to be bullish and during OpEx week a Tuesday low typically leads to a Wednesday high.

Keybot the Quant remains short and the algo is tracking financials; XLF 23.95 as a bull-bear line in the sand. The bulls push up through XLF 23.95 which provides the upside lift to the broad marketThe SPX may continue sputtering sideways through 1998-2018 into Wednesday. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 1:28 PM: The bulls slip on a banana peel with the SPX tumbling to 1989. The market action is insane. What monsters have the Fed's Keynesian experiment created? VIX is up to 21.90. The XLF drops under the critical 23.95 identified by the Keybot the Quant algorithm ushering in the stock market weakness. Market bulls need XLF above 23.95 otherwise they got nothing and will receive further pain.

Note Added 1:32 PM: Okay, baby, the SPX is at 1988.32. The 100-day MA is 1988.07. The challenge is on for a major bounce or die decision. The bull and bear have entered into a cage match; two have entered but only one will exit in the following minutes. What say you price? Bounce or die from 1988?......

Note Added 1:37 PM: Bounce. SPX up to 1992 moving higher. The 100-day MA support holds.

Note Added 1:47 PM: Price cannot move up through the 20-week MA at 1994 so those are your two boundaries. The 1994 above and the 100-day MA at 1988 below. Price will exit one side or the other telling you the winner moving forward. The SPX is at 1992 deciding on which way to break and as the chart above hints, the bulls have the advantage for the hours ahead. XLF 23.95 provides the market answer and price keeps bouncing above and below.

Note Added 2:10 PM: SPX moves higher to test 1998 R. The XLF is at 23.99 above the important 23.95 level moving higher sending stocks higher.

Note Added 5:26 PM: The XLF loses 23.95 in the afternoon tumbling to 23.69 sending stocks lower. It is surprising to see the SPX come down to 1973 at the closing bell due ot the chart above although in fairness the positive divergence was a tiny sliver for the MACD line and as mentioned the RSI has yet to become oversold. With the beating into the closing bell, the money flow on the 2-hour chart drops and wants to create a lower low which will delay a bottom for price for one to three candlesticks (all other indicators remains positively diverged wanting a bounce) which is 2 to 6 hours and bingo, yes, that would put the SPX at the FOMC meeting announcement at 2 PM tomorrow. The expectation would be that the 2-hour chart would be set up to begin a bounce tomorrow but in these markets and with the oil and Russian ruble collapse, anything can happen. The Keybot the Quant algorithm remains short and is tracking XLF 23.95 and SOX 657 as the two key parameters impacting market direction currently. Watch these closely on Wednesday. Bulls win with XLF 23.95. Bears win with SOX 657. Status quo and stocks will move sideways. The SPX is at 1972.74. The 150-day MA is 1973.95. The pivot from here is key tomorrow morning. Bounce or die. You knew the 150-day MA had street cred after the test earlier in the day. All eyes now focus on Russia. The janitor is emptying an increasing number of vodka bottles into the dumpster behind the Russian central bank building this evening. The pizza delivery boy is at the front entrance. It's going to be a long night.

Note Added 5:11 PM on Wednesday, 12/17/14: Fed Chair Yellen delivers the dovish goods and creates a huge stock market rally. The central bankers are the market. You knew the rally was imminent since XLF moved above 23.95 at 1 PM.

Russian Ruble Collapse; Russian Central Bank Intervenes; Russia in Chaos

The chart shows the parabolic jump in the Russian Ruble currency pair to near 80 this morning reflecting the collapsing ruble. Note the points in the chart where intervention occurs by the Russian Central Bank, but fails.

At 10 PM EST Monday evening in the States, the Russian Ruble recovers to 60 after the Russian central bank raises the key rate to 17.0%.

At 4 AM EST today, Tuesday, 12/16/14, the Russian Ruble restarts its collapse to 65.88 the rate hike to 17.0% has no affect. The currency pair is weakening in real-time to 65.91, 65.94 and moving towards 66 and higher. Russia has intervened with about $80 billion in reserves that has had no impact in stabilizing the ruble and about $400 billion in reserves remain available. The ruble is a “petro-currency” so as oil weakens the Russian economy weakens. Confidence is lost in Putin as he shows favoritism to wealthy crony buddies such as Rosneft executives placing their needs ahead of addressing the currency collapse. The central bank is not independent and instead exposed as a puppet institution performing Putin’s bidding. Russia will become increasingly isolated in the global community.

Capital controls will have to be implemented and the Russian central bank must intervene more forcibly to stabilize the ruble. Will the Russian people remain sanguine as the turmoil escalates? Dollar hoarding is occurring as Russians rush to change rubles to dollars. The complete failure in the ruble after the big rate hike to 17.0% overnight is very scary and creating concern around the world. Lower oil prices and the Russia credibility crisis will continue to weaken the ruble.

The Russian foreign minister exhibits bravado saying that oil output will remain at current levels and energy projects will continue unaffected by the drop in oil prices.

The oil collapse continues with WTIC crude down to 54.22 and Brent oil loses the 60 level for the first time in five years at 59.18.

At 5:45 AM, the Russian Ruble currency pair moves above 66 to 66.08. The Russian Micex Index is down -1.3%. Rosneft tumbles -8%. 

At 6 AM, Russian Ruble is 68.986 in complete collapse. The Russian people are forming lines at banks trying to exchange rubles for dollars. Russia is descending into a full-blown currency crisis. Russia will slide deeper into recession in 2015.

Wow! The Russian Ruble hits 70 for the first time on record; this is serious. Russians will begin panicking. Inflation will run rampant. Putin is likely shell shocked on the speed of the ruble collapse and will have to address the country. This is epic Forex and global market action occurring in real-time.

At 6:26 AM EST, Russia announces that Putin will address the country shortly. The Russian Ruble is plummeting to 71.296, then 71.3853, then 71.4778; these moves are occurring in seconds not minutes or hours. The Russian central bank has lost control.

At 6:29 AM, the Russian Ruble is 72.5130; the collapse is stunning. Russia’s economy will be toast for the next decade. WTIC crude oil 54.46. Brent crude oil 59.30.

At 6:32 AM, Russian Ruble 73.1037.

At 6:33 AM, Russian Ruble 73.6625.

At 6:55 AM, Russian Ruble is 74.2724 printing a 74-handle. The market machinations this morning are reminiscent of the Asian contagion problems in the late 1990’s.

At 7 AM Russian Ruble blows through 75 at 75. 3615. The ruble is in free fall and US futures are collapsing.

At 7:03 AM, Russian Ruble 75.5062. US 10-year yield 2.03% only three ticks from losing the 2% handle.

At 7:04 AM, Russian Ruble 75.9028. Russia’s rate hike to 17% is a complete failure. The Russian people are panicking as they see their savings evaporate. Bank runs are increasing.

At 7:04 AM, Russian Ruble 76.8290; this is spectacular and disturbing to watch in real-time; epic Forex action. The US 10-year yield prints a 2.00% handle. Global traders pace back and forth astounded at the ruble collapse.

At 7:10 AM, Russian Ruble 77.4167. Putin must think he is living a nightmare. A press conference is planned for today but the ruble is collapsing at such a fast rate that you cannot apply bench marks; Putin may talk today as the ruble collapses on a screen behind him.

Boom! The ruble implodes to 79.1246. Russia is in a full-blown currency crisis. Gold jumps 20 higher to 1220

At 7:15 AM, the Russian Ruble currency pair was at 60 nine hours ago at 10 PM EST Monday evening. The ruble collapses with the Russian Ruble at 66 only three hours ago at 4 AM EST. The Russian Ruble is now above 79 an unprecedented -31% collapse.

At 7:20 AM, S&P -13. Dow -92. Nasdaq -32. Russian Ruble 77.1167. The Russian central bank is stepping in to stop the ruble collapse. The Euro/Ruble runs at 100 and quickly reverses verifying that the Russian central bank is intervening.

At 7:40 AM, the Russian central bank intervenes sending the Russian Ruble to 73.205 then 72.80 attempting to stop the ruble collapse.

At 8 AM, Russian Ruble 72.905 so the central bank is definitely intervening. The high print is 79.66 almost hitting 80 and drops to 73-ish reflecting a strengthening ruble as the central bank steps in. Brent oil loses the 59 level to 58.86.

At 8:22 AM, a Russian central bank official says the “ruble situation is critical” and the central bank “will take further measures.” This is the central bank trying to stabilize the ruble using lip service trying to instill confidence that the currency is properly supported.

At 8:27 AM, the Russian Ruble is 73.0213 so the central bank is obviously targeting the 73 as a stabilization level.

At 8:48 AM, the Russian Ruble 72.548.

President Putin will be speaking today. Watch the Russian Ruble 73 level. If this level is maintained or lower the central bank is having success at stabilizing the collapsing ruble. If the currency pair starts higher again to 74, 75, 76, etc..., Katy bar the door.

This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Chart was provided by Bloomberg and annotated by Keystone.

Sunday, December 14, 2014

SPX 60-Minute Chart 200 EMA Cross Downward-Sloping Channel Lower Band Violation

The SPX remains under the 200 EMA at 2038.15 signaling bearish markets for the hours and days ahead. A back kiss is likely needed of this critical moving average and the 2040 is very strong and key resistance as well. The bulls will receive the joyous finish to the year if the SPX punches up through 2038-2040. Bears are fine perhaps for weeks, months and even a year or two if they can hold the 2038-2040 resistance.

The 1-hour chart was posted Friday morning and darn if that smidge of negativity remaining with the money flow pulled price lower for another look. The collapse in Friday trading now created lower lows for the MACD line so after any bounce for price the current level at 2002 should be retested again. The lower standard deviation band is violated so a move back to the middle band at 2034 and falling is on the table. The middle band will line up with the 2032 R and also the 2024 R in a couple days so these levels serve as upside targets.

Key support/resistance is 2046, 2040, 2038.00-2038.15 (strong support and the 200 EMA on the 60-minute), 2032, 2024, 2018, 2011, 2002-2003, 2000.75 (50-day MA), 1998, 1992 (38% Fib retracement)1990.75 (20-week MA)1987.96 (100-day MA), 1985-1986 and 1978.

Keybot the Quant remains short and the algo is tracking financials; XLF 23.92 as a bull-bear line in the sand. If the bears push XLF under 23.92, stocks are toast. If the bulls keep XLF above 23.92 they should be able to stabilize the stock market sideways.

The SPX may stutter sideways through 1998-2018 into Wednesday. If 1998 fails, price is going to test the strong 1985-1991 support gauntlet. If bulls can push above 2018 they can gain some upside traction. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX Daily Chart Lower Band Violation Expansion Pattern

The bears finally extract revenge against the historic seven-week central banker-induced stock market rally. The negative divergence was highlighted a week ago and the spank down occurs (red lines and arrow). The indicators remain weak and bleak. Stochastics are oversold. After any bounce lower lows in price would be expected. Price begins the week exactly at strong support at 2002-2003 and must make a bounce or die decision immediately when the bell rings. Bulls win above 2003. Bears win below 2002.

The lower standard deviation band is violated so a move back to the middle band at 2055 and dropping is on the table. The middle band may drop to 2040 which would create a confluence where price may seek for a recovery move. The neon blue expansion pattern, or megaphone pattern, remains in play ultimately projecting the low 1800's. Note the selling volume remains robust continuing to outpace the buying volume. Friday was a distribution day with the larger volume as compared to Thursday showing the smart money handing off shares to the bag holders. The expectation is for lower prices going forward after any bounces due to the weak and bleak indicators.

Key support/resistance is 2046, 2040, 2038.00-2038.15 (strong support and the 200 EMA on the 60-minute), 2032, 2024, 2018, 2011, 2002-2003, 2000.75 (50-day MA), 1998, 1992 (38% Fib retracement), 1990.75 (20-week MA), 1987.96 (100-day MA), 1985-1986 and 1978. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.