Monday, July 21, 2014

SPX 30-Minute Chart 8/34 MA Cross Sideways Channel Standard Deviation Bands Squeezing in Tight

The struggle for market control continues with the bulls and bears fighting over the 8/34 MA cross on the 30-minute. The red and green circles show the recent bear and bull crosses, respectively. Last Thursday's big loss created a negative 8/34 cross favoring bears but the Friday recovery created the positive cross and happy bulls but today's weakness creates a negative 8/34 cross ushering in market selling for the hours ahead.

The fight continues, however, since the 8 MA and 34 MA are only pennies from each other and the bulls are trying to create the positive 8/34 cross. The SPX is staggering sideways through the 1968, 1973 and 1976 S/R levels (see prior message for support and resistance levels). Price pokes up through 1973 R so the 1976 R is now in play. The 20-day MA is 1968.69 which forms a confluence with horizontal support and provides this level with serious street cred. Thus, price stumbles through the sideways 1968-1976 channel deciding which side it wants to break out from. Bulls win above 1976 and will send price higher to the 1980 R. Bears win big under 1968 which will quickly drop price to the 1960-1961 level for a critical bounce or die decision.

The indicators show a sideways chart pattern. Use the 50% and zero levels to gauge which side is winning. The RSI is a touch in favor of bulls above 50%. The stochastics, however, favor bears under 50%.The histogram and MACD line hug the flat zero line. The standard deviation bands (green lines) show another tight squeeze so a commitment on a strong directional move is likely on tap this afternoon or first thing in the morning. The green arrows show prior squeezes which result in 20-point moves one way of the other. Tight bands tell you a sharp strong move will occur but does not tell you what direction. Watch the 8/34 cross since it constantly identifies the winner moving forward. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 1:53 PM:  SPX 1975. The 8 MA on the 30-minute is 1970.87 and 34 MA 1971.58 so the bulls are pushing to create a positive cross with the 8 MA moving higher and the 34 MA sloping lower. Bears must create market weakness right away or they will fold like a cheap suit into the closing bell. The VIX is 12.64 dropping sending stocks higher. TRIN 1.05 a hair on the bear side of one. Bears must hold that 1976 R.

Note Added 3:39 PM: The bulls keep pushing higher with SPX at 1975 knocking on that 1976 R door. VIX 12.67. TRIN is down to 0.84 favoring the bulls and helping create market lift. The pending very sharp move described above is perhaps on tap for tomorrow's opening bell. The price action is sideways directionless like a drunk staggering along Times Square on a Saturday night. The ADX for the 30-minute chart is down at 12 showing no trend up, or down, in price whatsoever. Copper trades higher today moving JJC higher which helps the stock market bulls. Volatility is the key market direction driver currently; VIX 12.95 is the bull-bear line in the sand. At VIX 12.67 the bulls receive upside juice. Bears need the VIX above 12.95 then the bears need to turn a sector such as retail, financials or copper bearish to establish sustainable market selling. Right now, the bears are weak and need to push volatility higher to show they got game. The bears will receive a small feather for their caps if they can keep a lid on the markets by holding the SPX 1976 resistance.

Note Added 3:53 PM: SPX 1974. VIX 12.70. TRIN 0.91.

Note Added 3:56 PM:  Dollar.yen 101.39 so the slight increase in this currency pair from 101.30 this morning (weaker yen) helped create the market lift off the bottom today.

Note Added 4:01 PM: The bears are happy they held SPX 1976 resistance but the bulls are very happy they keep VIX under 12.95 since this will allow them to win tomorrow.

Note Added 4:07 PM: Netflix misses by a penny with 1.15 EPS and beats by a tiny hair on top line revenue with $1.34 billion versus $1.33 billion estimated. Traders push NFLX +2% higher on the knee-jerk reaction blessing the in-line results. As time goes on, NFLX keeps leaking lower, +1.5%.... +1.2% .... +0.8%..... hurry-up, buy a movie to help them out.

Note Added 4:14 PM: Chipotle is a hot tamale reporting 3.50 EPS trouncing the 3.06 estimate. Top line revenue is $1.05 billion versus the $990 million estimate. Sales are increasing with increasing traffic and increasing ticket prices. The popular restaurant is running on all cylinders. CMG gains +8%. Burrito’s are big business.

SPX Support, Resistance (S/R), Moving Averages and Other Important Levels for Trading the Week of 7/21/14

SPX support, resistance (S/R), moving averages and other important levels are provided for trading the week of 7/21/14. Levels shown in bold are strong resistance and support. Bold and underlined levels are very strong and important key S/R levels. The SPX closing and intraday all-time highs occurred on 7/3/14 two and one-half weeks ago at 1985-1986.

Equities remain elevated near all-time highs but the bears fight back today. Thursday was the big market down day, followed by the big recovery day on Friday, and now more weakness today. The VIX above 13 creates market negativity. If VIX drops under 13, equities will recover. Bears win if VIX stays above 13 and moves higher going forward.

The SPX starts the week at 1978 and fell like a stone at the opening bell. The bulls need only two points today, to touch the 1980 handle and this resistance will immediately give way with price running to test the all-time highs at 1985-1986 in very quick order. The bears need to push under the very strong 1960-1961 support level to accelerate the downside which will be substantial if this strong support fails. Even more interesting is that an air pocket exists between 1949 and 1928 so the 1949-1951 support level would be the last chance for the bulls to hold back the selling. A move today through 1962-1981 is sideways action to begin the week which is occurring.

The SPX is printing 1970 as one-half of Monday's trade is over. Note that today is a fight for the critical 20-day MA at 1968.44. Bounce or die. Bulls must hold this 1968-1969 level or failure will occur. Bears need the SPX under the 20-day MA as soon as possible. The bears need to move the SPX under the 200 EMA on the 60-minute chart at 1957.44 to lock in sustainable multi-day and perhaps multi-week and longer downside for the stock market.

As this missive was typed, the VIX drops under 13 and is now down at 12.88 so stocks recover. SPX is 1972.31 now down only 6 points on the day. The 1973 offers up strong overhead resistance. If this should give way, price will seek the strong 1976 R next. The SPX bounces off the 20-day MA today so the bulls are content with the price action.

1986 (7/3/14 All-Time Intraday High: 1985.59) (7/3/14 Intraday High for 2014: 1985.59)
1985 (7/3/14 All-Time Closing High: 1985.44) (7/3/14 Closing High for 2014: 1985.44)
1983.94 Previous Week’s High
1979.91 Friday HOD
1978.22 Friday Close – Monday Starts Here
Currently Printing 1970.16 in Monday Trading
1968.44 (20-day MA)
1968 (6/24/14 Intraday Top: 1968.17)
1963 (6/20/14 Closing High: 1962.87)
1960.82 Friday LOD
1960.23 July Begins Here
1957.44 (200 EMA on 60-Minute Chart a Keystone Market Turn Signal)
1956 (6/9/14 Intraday Top: 1955.55)
1955.59 Previous Week’s Low
1951 (6/9/14 Closing High: 1951.27)
1938.42 (50-day MA)
1924 (5/30/14 Intraday Top: 1924.03) (5/13/14 Closing High: 1923.57)
1907.33 (20-week MA)
1902 (5/13/14 Intraday Top: 1902.17)
1901.89 (100-day MA)
1897 (5/13/14 Closing High: 1897.45) (4/4/14 Intraday Top: 1897.28)
1891 (4/2/14 Closing High: 1890.90)
1884 (3/21/14 Intraday Top: 1883.97) (3/7/14 Intraday Top: 1883.57)
1878 (3/7/14 Closing High: 1878.04)
1873.90 (150-day MA; the Slope is a Keystone Cyclical Signal)
1866.29 (10-month MA; a major market warning signal)
1851 (1/15/14 Intraday Top: 1850.84)
1849 (12/31/13 Intraday High Top for 2013: 1849.44)
1848.36 Trading for 2014 Begins Here
1848 (1/15/14 Closing High: 1848.38) (12/31/13 Closing High for 2013: 1848.36)
1845.37 (200-day MA; not tested for 19 months extremely odd behavior)
1831.45 (12-month MA; a Keystone Cyclical Signal) (the cliff)
1824.35 (50-week MA)

Friday, July 18, 2014

Keystone's Midday Market Action 7/18/14; Israel Invades Gaza; Ukraine Airplane Crash Aftermath; Consumer Sentiment

Retail stocks are the key today since Keybot the Quant algorithm identifies RTH 59.46 as the key metric affecting market direction. Whichever way the RTH pivots from 59.46, so do the markets, and the RTH runs higher now at 59.52 providing a nod to the market bulls sending equities higher. The TRIN is down to 0.71 which will guarantee bull victory today if it stays under one. Now that the bulls take back RTH 59.46 into their camp, VIX 13.06 is the next target, which gives way to the downside (bullish) as this missive is typed. VIX is now at 13.00. Watch the VIX closely since the drop under 13.06 will create a lot more bull fuel and a stronger relief rally.

The SPX bounces immediately so the 200 EMA cross on the 60-minute will not turn negative, at least in the early going, so the bulls sit back and light a stoagie (refernce the previous chart). Markets should pivot at 10 AM with Consumer Sentiment and Leading Indicators so wait for this to pass before seeing how markets settle in for the day. RTH above 59.46, and VIX under 13.06, with the low 0.7 TRIN, says the bulls easily win today. Can they keep it up?

Note Added 9:50 AM: RTH 59.56 (above the 59.46 bull-bear line causing market bullishness). VIX 13.18 (above the 13.06 bull-bear line causing market bearishness). These two parameters are the rudder steering the market directional ship today. Monitor them closely so see which way the broad market will move. TRIN 0.77.

Note Added 9:54 AM: RTH 59.55. VIX 13.30. Sentiment hits in one minute.

Note Added 9:56 AM: Consumer Sentiment is 81.3 the weakest since spring time. Dollar/yen 101.37. RTH 59.56. VIX 13.34. TRIN 0.79.

Note Added 10:00 AM: Leading indicators are up +0.3% missing the +0.5% estimate. RTH 59.58 so the bulls latch on to the retail stocks to keep equities buoyant into the weekend. VIX is 13.32 so the bears latch on to volatility to maintain downward pressure in equities. One of these two characters will flinch and tell you the market direction answer. If they remain status quo, then equities simply stagger sideways into Happy Hour.

Note Added 2:34 PM: The VIX collapses under 13.06 and bears fold like a cheap suit. Keybot the Quant algo remains short but will likely flip long if the SPX moves above 1982.63. The SPX is currently printing 1978 and rising at the highs of the day. VIX is at 12.15. TRIN 1.04 interestingly moving above one today in the bear camp but the low volatility is powerful and forces equities to move higher.

Note Added 2:39 PM: The 8 MA just moved above the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute chart which which gives the nod to the bulls for the hours ahead. The cross is only occurring by pennies thus far so if the bears want to prevent the 8/34 cross or at least make it very short-lived, the bears must push the SPX lower immediately. If the bulls keep pushing higher they may push higher into and through early next week. There is lots of time remaining in today's trading. The next one-half hour or so will tell a lot. If bears plan on pushing back they have to do it now. VIX 12.22. TRIN 1.03.

Note Added 3:39 PM:  The drama continues. SPX 1978. VIX 12.21. TRIN 1.12Bulls still have time to push higher. The TRIN is maintaining a ceiling on the SPX. Keystone bot QID, a 2x inverse ETF that goes up if tech (Nadaq) goes down, opening a new long position. QID has attractive positive divergence on weekly and daily charts. It may need more time to base but it will simply be added to moving forward. 

SPX 60-Minute Chart 200 EMA Cross

Now you can see why Keystone always references the 200 EMA cross on the 60-minute often. The SPX remains above the 200 EMA at 1955.72 signaling bullish markets for the hours and days ahead. Note the intraday low at 1955.59 with price bouncing directly off this critical bull-bear signal line verifying its importance. The bulls continue to enjoy a big party above the 200 EMA and even when it is pierced to the downside the bulls have quickly recovered. Perhaps this time it will be different but the bears have no hope until they create a price drop under the 200 EMA which will trigger substantial market selling.

The 8 MA is under the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute chart signaling bearish markets for the hours ahead. Thus, either the chart above turns bearish agreeing with the 30-minute chart forecast signaling ongoing bear victory and market selling, or, the 8 MA will cross above the 34 MA on the 30-minute chart agreeing with the 60-minute chart above signaling that the bulls win moving forward.

The red lines show weak and bleak indicators wanting to see lower lows in price after a bounce occurs. The stochastics are oversold which will help create a bounce.The bears need the negative 200 EMA cross or they got nothing. If so, equities are going to start noticeably deteriorating. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 10:05 AM: Equities start off with the bounce and the SPX is at 1965 and higher ruining any bear hopes for market mayhem, for now. Bears need the negative 200 EMA cross, the 1955-1956 level to fail, or they got nothing.

German 10-Year Yield Multi-Year Historic Lows

The German 10-year yield prints a low at 1.144% this morning at a multi-year historic low. Investors are running to the perceived safety of German bonds (higher prices lower yields). This occurred in the US yesterday with the 10-year Treasury note yield collapsing through 2.50% and remaining below. If the yields recover higher, the geopolitical tensions are easing. If the German and US notes and bonds continue to be well bid driving yields lower, the geopolitical tensions are becoming more intense. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Thursday, July 17, 2014

Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

Keystone's trading algorithm, Keybot the Quant, flips to the short side today at SPX 1963 about one our before the closing bell. VIX above 13.10 caused the market failure in the afternoon. RTH closed exactly on the RTH 59.46 bull-bear line in the sand. Whichever way the retail sector goes tomorrow, so goes equities. The algo was long for about 8 weeks. As always stay alert for a potential whipsaw tomorrow. The bears are finally driving the bus. Reference Keybot's site for further details;

Keybot the Quant

Keystone's Morning Wake-Up and Midday Market Action 7/17/14; Russia Sanctions Bite; Housing Starts; Malaysian Airplane Crash

The bulls pump markets higher yesterday but the Russia sanctions are dampening the global market mood. Russia stocks are down and the ruble is weakening with the ruble currency pair at 35 moving higher. Money is leaving Russia. At the same time, the sanctions will hurt Europe as well that remains mired in recession and depression. Germany's manufacturing data leaks lower for the last three months and the sanctions will only serve to continue the European malaise. President Putin threatens retaliation.

The world remains a mess deteriorating daily. Syria, Iraq, Iran, Ukraine, Egypt, Libya and Israel remain in chaos with global traders not concerned and not pricing in any geopolitical risk. Traders are drunk on the Fed wine and buy stocks without concern. The CPC and CPCE put/call ratios drop and the uber low multi-year print under 0.40 with the CPCE one-month ago has yet to be resolved with a market sell off. The VIX is at 11 further verifying the ongoing market complacency.

Geolpolitical risk is entering markets today as the S&P futures have gone from -3 after the Russia sanction announcement last evening to -6 a couple hours ago and -12 now, about 2-1/2 hours before the opening bell. The 10-year Treasury yield is at 2.50% about to lose this important psychological level. The economic slip into disinflation continues as has been highlighted with the commodities. The dollar/yen drops overnight down to 101.50 so the stronger yen creates weakness in Japan and US stock markets.

Keybot the Quant remains long ever since 5/22/14. A  few bear traps have been snared over the last couple weeks as equities have threatened a sell off only to recover sharply poking the bears in the eye with a sharp stick each time. With the S&P futures pointing to a weak start, watch RTH 59.47, JJC 38.65 and VIX 13. The algorithm identifies these three parameters as most greatly impacting market direction currently. As the markets sell off, any one of these three parameters turning bearish verifies the negativity and a more extended and sustainable downside market move begins. If none of the three parameters turn bearish, then the bears got nothing and equities will recover higher. If one of the three parameters listed fail into the bear camp, and the SPX drops under 1976, Keybot will likely flip to the short side ending the 8-week rally.

For the SPX starting at 1982, the bulls only need two points, to touch the 1984 handle and it is smooth sailing to new all-time highs and 1990 in quick order. Alas, the S&P futures say this is not going to happen, at least at the start. The bears need to push the SPX under 1976 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1977-1983 is sideways action. The weak projected opening would easily slice down through 1976, however, the all-important monthly Housing Starts are on tap at 8:30 AM and will move the futures. MS, PPG and PM earnings are due out before the opening bell.

The 8 MA is above the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute chart signaling bullish markets for the hours ahead so watch to see if a negative 8/34 cross occurs to verify an extended downside market move ahead, or not. Bears got nothing without the negative 8/34 cross on the 30-minute. The 20-day MA is 1967.08 so look at this for support where price will make a bounce or die decision. The Tuesday to Wednesday OpEx bullishness occurs as forecasted; ditto the bullishness expected through the two-day Fed testimony. Today brings on a different tone.

In a nutshell, watch RTH 59.47JJC 38.65 and VIX 13. Bears got nothing without one of these three joining the bear camp (lower retail and financial stocks and higher volatility). If one of the three turn bearish it is likely that Keybot the Quant will flip to the short side. Keystone will probably not be able to provide updates until this afternoon but the criteria above clearly explains the game plan today. The retail and bank stocks, and higher volatility, will determine if the bears got the beans to push equities lower, or not.

Note Added 7:19 AM: MS beats on top and bottom line so the banks will be happy and futures may recover. S&P -12. Dow -65. Nasdaq -25. Copper is selling off. Dollar/yen 101.44.

Note Added 7:42 AM: The MS earnings improve the market tone. S&P -9. Dow -42. Nasdaq -20. Dollar/yen 101.45. The 10-year yield is 2.51% fighting to maintain the 2.50% support with all its might. Watch retail, financials and volatility, especially RTH 59.47and JJC 38.65, to determine the path ahead.

Note Added 6:05 PM: The initial market moves today looked same-o same-o. Stocks drop but RTH, VIX and JJC remain bullish and sure enough markets recover. At 11 AM, the Malaysian airplane tragedy news comes across the tape and equities collapse. This action still was not enough to convince the Keybot the Quant algorithm to turn bearish. In the afternoon, traders started a mini-panic over geopolitical events and this spiked the VIX higher which was the main trigger of the sell off. RTH 59.46 failed as well verifying the downside. Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at SPX 1963. RTH 59.46 is the key since it sits directly on the bull-bear line in the sand. Whichever way retail stocks move at the opening bell, the broad market will move in the same direction. Listen overnight for any positive, or negative, news concerning retail stocks. At the close, Keystone bot ARO opening a new long position. Aeropostale will probably be held for a few months. It is beaten down and laying in the emergency room but the charts are set up with attractive positive divergence and it is a takeover target. Thus, Keystone will likely hold ARO long moving forward and continue scaling-in buying more every couple weeks.

Wednesday, July 16, 2014

CRB Weekly Chart Long-Term Sideways Channel

The 3-week drop in the CRB from 313 down to 295 is a near -6% collapse. The inflation talk will subside as the chart drops away. Corn and wheat prices have plummeted. The premium out of crude oil has dropped. Gold remains challenged teasing the 1300 level this morning. Food inflation is the most noticed by consumers and typically ebbs and flows with global weather events. Lower grain prices will lead to lower meat prices over time. The beef herds that were culled one year ago due to the droughts are being rebuilt and should be at near full strength again later this year into early next year so beef prices will moderate in the months ahead.

PPI comes in a bit hotter than expected this morning so this will fuel the inflation talk and the need for the Fed to move up the projections for the first rate hike. Keystone agrees with Fed Chair Yellen, however, in that inflation is not a threat. Wages are stagnant and inflation will not occur until wages rise. The UK data this morning shows very encouraging jobs numbers but the fly in the ointment is a drop in wages which ruins any joy.

The green box shows the big jump in commodities this year leading into the food inflation. The overbot conditions, rising wedge pattern and negative divergence (red liens) create the spank down off the top. The indicators remain weak and bleak (negatively sloping) so lower lows in price are anticipated after any dead-cat bounce would occur. A bounce off the 50-week MA at 293.30 is a reasonable expectation. The drop in commodities in 2013 (red arrow) reflecting less of a need for raw materials should have led to a weaker stock market but it did not. There is no clearer proof of how the central bankers are the market. The obscene ongoing QE stimulus that continues today is what creates the all-time stock market highs.

Keystone's Inflation-Deflation Indicator uses the CRB and the 10-year Treasury price as a gauge. CRB/10-yr price = 296.02/99.4219 = 2.98 signaling Disinflation. Under 2.9 is Deflation. Between 2.9 and 3.0 is Disinflation. Between 3.0 and 3.7 inflationists and deflationists fight it out in no man's land. Above 3.7 is Inflation.

The chart hint at continued sideways behavior for the weeks and months ahead. In a strong global economy, the CRB should be moving to the top right instead of the bottom right of the chart. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Tuesday, July 15, 2014

SPX 30-Minute Chart 8/34 MA Cross

The 8 MA remains above the 34 MA signaling bullish markets for the hours ahead, however, the 8 MA is dropping sharply and may create a negative cross in the hour or two ahead. If the bull's want to prevent this from happening, they need to spike the SPX price pronto. So if you see the SPX rise, price will likely print and top out in the rosy red circle on the daily chart previously posted. If the bears can maintain selling pressure today, the negative 8/34 cross occurs and the path is lower for stocks moving forward. Since the 8 MA is dropping so sharply, the bulls have to jam markets higher immediately, without delay, or the bears will growl going forward. The SPX is printing 1970 recovering off the 1965 low a short time ago. Watch the 8/34 cross since it tells you who wins today. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 12:39 PM:  SPX 1971. VIX 12.06. (Bears need VIX above 13 to create market mayhem). TRIN is 0.79 very bullish for today giving the nod to the bulls and hinting that equities should recover into the afternoon.

Note Added 12:41 PM:  SPX 1972. VIX 11.93 and TRIN 0.77 so the bulls are pushing stocks higher trying to prevent the negative 8/34 cross described above.

Note Added 9:00 AM on 7/16/14: The bulls recovered yesterday as the low TRIN signaled. The 8 MA is 1973.10 and the 34 MA is 1973.22 so the bears are winning by a tiny hair. However, S&P futures point to a strong opening of about +9 so the 8 MA is going to pierce up through the 34 MA to signal bullish markets for the hours ahead. The seasonality bullishness likely helps since Tuesday to Wednesday is typically bullish during OpEx week and the two-day Fed meeting is typically bullish for markets 80% of the time. Perhaps a market top will be placed either later this afternoon or in the Thursday session. The bulls are set to throw a party to begin the Wednesday session.

SPX Daily Chart Rising Wedges Negative Divergence in Place and Developing Standard Deviation Bands Tightening

The red lines for the indicators to begin July hghlight the negative divergence that wanted a spank down in price, which occurred. Last week, however, the VST juice with the RSI and MACD line (short green lines) wanted to see another price high (the MACD printed a hair higher after price had already come off the top; for firm neggie d you need the price high and the negative divergence in the indicator to be in place at the same time). So price printing inside the rosy red circle would create that matching or higher high satisfying that last bit of juice in the MACD line and RSI. As long as the indicators do not move above the rosy red lines in the right margin for the indicators, the neggie d would be in place and firm across all time periods creating a firm market top so a negative outcome ahead is very likely.

Note that the upper standard deviation band is 1985-ish so it would actually be beneficial formarket bears to simply print this 1985-plus number and be done with it. At today's HOD at 1983 that is so close to a matching high at 1985 that the case can be made that the high is in and this is close enough for government work. The pink arrows show how the standard deviation bands are squeezing in tight for a big move. The tight bands do not forecast direction only that a big move is about to occur. Interestingly, this gels exactly together with the major Bradley turn date tomorrow that forecasts this week, and a couple days next week, as a window for a market inflection point either strongly higher or strongly lower (Bradley dates do not forecast direction only that a market inflection point will occur).

The MACD line is already dropping even with price moving higher which is bearish. The RSI, stochastics and money flow will need to drop under the 50% levels to verify a bearish path ahead. The projection is for price to top out now or in the days ahead and head lower for the days and weeks and probably months forward. This currently printing 1970 level is key since it is yesterday's low. A downside acceleration will occur if it is lost. Price will likely seek the 20-day MA at 1965 and rising as an initial downside projection. The HOD today is 1982.52 round it to 1983 very very near the highs from seven days ago (a matching high) so it would not at all be surprising to see the markets roll over from here. Considering the seasonality factors with OpEx week typically bullish from a Tuesday low to a Wednesday high, and that the Fed Congressional testimony typically results in a bullish two-day period about 80% of the time, stocks may recover to print inside that rosy red bubble still yet. Nonetheless, the market top is at hand or likely very very near.

As this is typed, the SPX loses the 1970 so a downside acceleration of a few handles is forecasted, and occurs. LOD thus far is 1965.34 immediately dumping five handles once 1970 support failed. The SPX drops and bounces directly off the 20-day MA at 1964.78 (1965). Use the 20-day MA as a key market metric moving forward. Bulls win above 1965. Bears win below 1965. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.